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Is Iran Preparing to Strike Back


By Michael Collins - Posted on 06 December 2011

By Brian M. Downing

These attacks are almost certainly directed by Israeli, Saudi, and US intelligence services. They may also be acts of war.

"This business will get out of control."
– The Hunt for Red October

In the last few years diplomatic pressures and economic sanctions have been imposed to convince Iran to allow international inspection of its nuclear research facilities. A number of states have also pursued a violent clandestine campaign of bombings and assassinations that have killed scores of Iranians, including nuclear scientists. These attacks are almost certainly directed by Israeli, Saudi, and US intelligence services. They may also be acts of war.

In recent weeks Iran has decried terrorism around the world (somewhat paradoxically, to be sure), put up a clumsy plot to assassinate a Saudi ambassador, boasted of its missile strength, and briefly seized the British embassy in Tehran – an act done not by students as with the US embassy in 1979, but by toughs of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Most recently, the IRGC went on alert, ostensibly to brace for more attacks inside the country.

These responses indicate rising ire in the Iranian government, the political ascendancy of the IRGC, and most ominously, the likelihood of sharper hostilities in the region. In the absence of candid dialogue and in the oblique language of stern diplomacy, Iran is signaling the possibility of violent responses well beyond the quotidian rocket attacks on Israel from Hamas and Hizbullah. These could include encouraging Shiite uprisings in the Gulf and attacking Israeli, Saudi, and US targets. US targets would include troops in Iraq, the Persian Gulf, and Afghanistan.

Foreign efforts to press Iran to abandon its nuclear program – sanctions and covert operations – have thus far been unsuccessful. They are getting out of control and are leading to violent retaliation and regional conflict. Indeed, they may be presently intended to elicit a violent response from Iran which will then be used as a pretext for stronger attacks – perhaps devastating ones on Iran’s air defenses and military bases to be followed on with strikes on nuclear sites.

These efforts only firming government and popular support for nuclear research and solidifying IRGC power in the state. Iran is moving from a theocracy with a zealous military to a military-dominated bureaucracy with a clerical body legitimizing it. And of course militaries usually prefer violent actions to diplomatic ones.

The American public is blissfully unaware of what is going on and will see a violent Iranian response as unprovoked and calling for decisive action. And any US attack on Iran will be widely judged as measured and just.

©2011 Brian M Downing Reposted with the author's permission

Brian M. Downing is a political/military analyst and author of The Military Revolution and Political Change and The Paths of Glory: War and Social Change in America from the Great War to Vietnam. He can be reached at brianmdowning@gmail.com.

Originally published in The Agonist

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Is Mr. Downing unaware that Iran's status as a signatory to the NPT not only allows them to enrich uranium for energy but has also subjected them to years of regular IAEA inspections that have yet to reveal ANY ACTUAL EVIDENCE of a nuclear weapons program in Iran?


Is he also unaware that Israel has had an active nuclear weapons program for decades, resulting in a stockpile of HUNDREDS of NUKES, and that they have steadfastly refused to declare these weapons or allow inspections of their own nuclear facilities?


Could he also be ignorant of the many credible sources that have shown the supposed Saudi ambassador asssassination plot to be just another sophomoric sting cooked up by the FBI?

 

Legitimate analysis is impossible when key facts are so blatantly ignored.

 

http://www.JohnPerryOnline.Com

The clear point is right here: 

"The American public is blissfully unaware of what is going on and will see a violent Iranian response as unprovoked and calling for decisive action. And any US attack on Iran will be widely judged as measured and just."

The reference to Irans nuclear program is accurate.  They have a nuclear program.  Any potential or actual wepons aspect of the program was not referenced and isnt really the point here.

The article points out tht US, Israeli, and Saudi secret services are engaged in baiting Iran and that Iran may respond in a way that will generate a "retaliatory attack.

I find this the most succinct and pointed analysis of the major intrigues and dangers we face due to reckless leaders on all sides of this conflict.

It will be the people of the nations involved who pay.

Which implies in the very first sentence that Iran has so far refused to allow inspections, which is not true, as my first comment points out.

The article also claims that Iran "put up a clumsy plot to assassinate a Saudi ambassador,"  as if it's universally accepted that they indeed planned to blow up a DC restaurant to kill the guy. ALSO not true.

Yes, it's accurate to say that Iran has a nuclear program. But for any writer to ignore the fact that their status as a signatory to the NPT allows for the uranium enrichment that has never been shown by any credible evidence to be for anything more than peaceful energy purposes, is more than a little irresponsible.

Of course the American public is blissfully unaware. Of course any violent response from Iran will be seen as unprovoked and therefore necessitate an American attack. And any article that ignores or misrepresents such critical issues, regardless of its angle, is only contributing to the ignorance of the masses.

Iran has a Right to National Defence against Aggression from Outside Powers and the Provoking is Coming from the West


with Military and Oil Interests No Doubt in Mind


Israel on the other Hand despite the Gaza Outrage cannot do any Wrong in the Blinkered Eyes of the West


Robert For Peace

Iran is a signatory of the NPT and has complied with all its the obligations as a signatory of this treaty. Israel on the other hand, has a clandestine nuclear program with the help of the US/UK/Norway. Israel is not a signatory of the NPT, has over 300 nuclear ogivas, refuses international and independent inspections, THREATS other countries and practice GENOCIDE and TERRORISM with the help os Washington. This article is CRAP from the begining!

...of us.  The dynamic of provoking Iran and then using a response to that provocation as an excuse for a full attack on Iran is quite relevant. 

You say this is flawed from the beginning.  Well, here's the second sentence in the article:

"A number of states have also pursued a violent clandestine campaign of bombings and assassinations that have killed scores of Iranians, including nuclear scientists. These attacks are almost certainly directed by Israeli, Saudi, and US intelligence services. They may also be acts of war."

If you don't think thats significant, then what would count as significant?

But significance isn't your purpose as betrayed by your vulgar last sentence.  Show a degree o civility.  It's refreshing

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