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Grim 2012 Economic Outlook


By Stephen Lendman - Posted on 29 December 2011

  Grim 2012 Economic Outlook - by Stephen Lendman

 

Yearend isn't just about holiday season binge shopping, parties, and over-indulgence. It's also when economic predictions surface. 

 

The Wall Street Journal publishes consensus views. On December 23, it headlined, "Risks Cloud Outlook for Economy in 2012," saying:

 

"The economy is poised for another year of muddling through. Most private economists forecast a modest 2% growth rate for the US....with a pace subdued by housing woes, a lackluster job market, and cuts by government."

 

"They also warn of potential spillover from weakness abroad, including a mild recession apparently under way in Europe."

 

Concerns and uncertainties highlighted included:

  •  
  • global weakness, threatening US exports;

 

  • weak housing demand with foreclosures affecting prices;

 

  • protracted unemployment and weak job creation; and

 

  • government belt tightening.

 

Overall, mainstream economists predict continued recovery from crisis conditions beginning in late 2007. In fact, heading into it, they forecast continued good times.

 

According former market analyst Bob Farrell:

 

"When all the experts and forecasts agree - something else is going to happen."

 

In other words, when mainstream consensus forecasts one way, expect another.

 

On December 22, on the Finance News Network, investor/author/analyst Jim Rogers sees current problems worsening because of too much spending and debt.

 

Asked to elaborate on what matters most, he said "too much debt" is problem one because the Fed "keeps printing money." It spells trouble because it won't stop until "systemic collapse."

 

"It's going to be very, very serious pain. You're going to see riots in the street. You're going to see serious, serious problems, maybe perhaps (more) war...."

 

No matter who leads America, he added, he has "absolutely no confidence at all that anything's going to be done...."

 

In 2012, Gerald Celente predicts:

 

Festering socio-economic/financial/geopolitical trends will climax next year. "Some will arrive with a big bang and others less dramatically....but no less consequentially."

 

On December 28, Financial Times contributor Mark Mallock-Brown headlined, "The downward slide continues - the great revolt will come later," saying:

 

"Next year is not going to be better....Whatever temporary economic fixes are applied to the eurozone, American deficits and unemployment, the overheated Chinese real estate market, petering Indian reforms or stalling Brazilian growth," expect more slide.

 

Global economic dislocations are "increasingly disorderly." Deceptive political rhetoric may prove the "calm before the storm."

 

As Progressive Radio New Hour regular Jack Rasmus explains, they consistently miss major turning points, "including their failure to predict the epic recession of 2008, their erroneous prediction of a rapid 'V'-shape recovery in 2009-10, and now their failure to foresee what's coming in the Eurozone, China and Emerging markets."

 

Rasmus called mainstream economists "bird(s) without wings." Practically all of them missed the impending 2008 crisis. Moreover, they're blind to the "coming deeper economic crisis that will almost certainly emerge no later than early 2013 and potentially" much earlier as Eurozone, China and other economies crater.

 

Obama's economic programs failed badly. Instead of creating jobs, helping homeowners, resurrecting housing, and aiding troubled state and local governments, he focused on Wall Street bailouts, transferring wealth to America's super-rich, and relying on business to hire when they're hoarding cash and treading water, not expanding.

 

Mainstream economists missed the significance. They also ignored the importance of massive domestic spending cuts and reduced consumer income, undermining recovery and growth.

 

These birds can't fly, says Rasmus. Liberal economists can't explain how much deficit spending is needed to sustain recovery, and conservatives don't understand that transferring wealth to corporations and super-rich elites won't stimulate investment, job creation and growth.

 

As harder times in 2012 loom, these birds "can only run around in circles, flightless, squawking as (they) turn left, then right and back again" aimlessly.

 

On December 25, James Petras headlined his article "Unrelenting Global Economic Crisis: A Doomsday View of 2012." He focused on what matters most - reality, not broken models or a follow the crowd mindset.

 

His view, like this writer and others not bylined where most people get news, information and opinion, is "profoundly negative." He believes "we are heading toward a steeper decline than what was experienced during the Great Recession of 2008 - 2009."

 

"With fewer resources, greater debt and increasing popular resistance to shouldering the burden of saving the capitalist system," continuing to bail out banks and other corporate favorites won't work.

 

Conditions are in disarray and worsening. Troubled Eurozone countries face collapse. So do major banks. Global crisis looms. Policy errors worsen conditions. 

 

Growing protests across Europe, America, the Middle East and elsewhere threaten rebellions if corrective measures aren't taken. Instead, populations are being force-fed austerity when stimulus is needed. When pain levels cross thresholds of no return, revolutions can erupt any time. 

 

Money and Markets (MM) contributors also see a "millennial tipping point" in 2012. Martin Weiss believes Europe's debt crisis will climax. America's budget battle will affect financial markets. Troubled global banks "will face their Day of Reckoning," and world populations will face harder than ever hard times.

 

Other MM contributors see unprecedented panic cycles, Eurozone dissolution, failure of the euro, gold correcting then soaring, major bank failures, a global crisis of confidence, and a protracted black hole of decline, punctuated by recoveries and steeper slumps. 

 

Buckle up! Forewarned is forearmed.

 

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net. 

 

Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy listening.

 

http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-progressive-news-hour/.                                  

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Gerald Celente's Top 12 Forecast Trends 2012

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012 Dec 22, 2011 - 05:44 AM

By: LewRockwell

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHold onto your hat, your wallet, and your wits.

After a tumultuous 2011 in which many of the trends we had forecast became headline news around the world, we are now forewarning of an even more tumultuous year to come.

 

 

While it would give us great pleasure to forecast a 2012 of joy and prosperity – all brought about by the wisdom and benevolence of our fearless leaders – since we are not running for office or looking to profit by gulling the people, we tell it as we see it in our 12 Top Trends 2012.

One megatrend looms on the near horizon. And we forecast that when it strikes, it will be a shock felt around the world. Hyperbole it’s not! Our research has revealed that at the very highest levels of government this megatrend has been seriously discussed. Read on:

1. Economic Martial Law: Given the current economic and geopolitical conditions, the central banks and world governments already have plans in place to declare economic martial law … with the possibility of military martial law to follow.

2. Battlefield America: With a stroke of the Presidential pen, language was removed from an earlier version of the National Defense Authorization Act, granting the President authority to act as judge, jury and executioner. Citizens, welcome to "Battlefield America."

3. Invasion of the Occtupy: 15 years ago, Gerald Celente predicted in his book Trends 2000 that prolonged protests would hit Wall Street in the early years of the new millennium and would spread nationwide. The "Occtupy" is now upon us, and it is like nothing history has ever witnessed.

4. Climax Time: The financial house of cards is collapsing, and in 2012 many of the long-simmering socioeconomic and geopolitical trends that Celente has accurately forecast will come to a climax. Some will arrive with a big bang and others less dramatically … but no less consequentially. Are you prepared? And what's next for the world?

5. Technocrat Takeover: “Democracy is Dead; Long Live the Technocrat!” A pair of lightning-quick financial coup d’états in Greece and Italy have installed two unelected figures as head of state. No one yet in the mainstream media is calling this merger of state and corporate powers by its proper name: Fascism, nor are they calling these “technocrats” by their proper name: Bankers! Can a rudderless ship be saved because technocrat is at the helm?

6. Repatriate! Repatriate!: It took a small, but financially and politically powerful group to sell the world on globalization, and it will take a large, committed and coordinated citizens’ movement to “un-sell” it. “Repatriate! Repatriate!” will pit the creative instincts of a multitude of individuals against the repressive monopoly of the multinationals.

7. Secession Obsession: Winds of political change are blowing from Tunisia to Russia and everywhere in between, opening a window of opportunity through which previously unimaginable political options may now be considered: radical decentralization, Internet-based direct democracy, secession, and even the peaceful dissolution of nations, offering the possibility for a new world "disorder."

8. Safe Havens: As the signs of imminent economic and social collapse become more pronounced, legions of New Millennium survivalists are, or will be, thinking about looking for methods and ways to escape the resulting turmoil. Those “on-trend” have already taken measure to implement Gerald Celente’s 3 G’s: Gold, Guns and a Getaway plan. Where to go? What to do? Top Trends 2012 will guide the way.

9. Big Brother Internet: The coming year will be the beginning of the end of Internet Freedom: A battle between the governments and the people. Governments will propose legislation for a new “authentication technology,” requiring Internet users to present the equivalent of a driver’s license and/or bill of health to navigate cyberspace. For the general population it will represent yet another curtailing of freedom and level of governmental control.

10. Direct vs. Faux Democracy: In every corner of the world, a restive populace has made it clear that it’s disgusted with “politics as usual” and is looking for change. Government, in all its forms – democracy, autocracy, monarchy, socialism, communism – just isn'’t working. The only viable solution is to take the vote out of the hands of party politicians and institute Direct Democracy. If the Swiss can do it, why can’t anyone else?

11. Alternative Energy 2012: Even under the cloud of Fukushima, the harnessing of nuclear power is being reinvigorated by a fuel that is significantly safer than uranium and by the introduction of small, modular, portable reactors that reduce costs and construction time. In addition, there are dozens of projects underway that explore the possibility of creating cleaner, competitively priced liquid fuels distilled from natural sources. Plan to start saying goodbye to conventional liquid fuels!

12. Going Out in Style: In the bleak terrain of 2012 and beyond, “Affordable sophistication” will direct and inspire products, fashion, music, the fine arts and entertainment at all levels. US businesses would be wise to wake up and tap into the dormant desire for old time quality and the America that was.

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