Focus: Update on the Latemenah and Khan Sheikhoun Sarin Attacks – Nov 13, 2017

Below is a discussion about the identification of the specific munition used in the Latemenah and Khan Sheikhoun sarin attacks. Bellingcat matches the munition parts found after the blasts to the M4000 bomb declared by the Syrian government to the OPCW as being part of its chemical stockpile. In an heated exchange of tweets, experts confute or approve the Bellingcat statements. Read also the comments at the end of the Bellingcat article.

Did Russia accidentally provide the best evidence of the Syrian government’s involvement in sarin attacks? – bellingcat

This report is based on “cherry picking” – i.e. reporting only matches. This bias causes the human brain to believe “it’s impossible for so many coincidences to happen”. When considering also the mismatches, it looks much less clear-cut: 1. Cap is ~20% smaller in diagram 1/3” – Rootclaim on Twitter

2. Inner metal ring in tail is ~20% larger and 15% wider. 3. Fins seem longer, but hard to measure. 4. Fuze is 30% larger. 5. “Lug” is 100% farther from the cap. 6. The mixer has 3 “steps” instead of 2, rod is 40% wider, and extends through other side 2/3 – Rootclaim on Twitter

7. A metal cone spreading like putty to a half circle seems weird, but expert opinion is needed. So other than a lug next to a cap (which also happens in the cannons), none of the items match. We might publish a probabilistic analysis of this once more info is available. 3/3 – Rootclaim on Twitter

 

Plausible? [Metal pipe found in the Khan Sheikhoun crater similar to a part in the Hell Cannon] – yaya on Twitter

Found the video that image is from which shows a Hell Cannon workshop where you can see the width of the “stem” as its cut and it looks a fair match for the pipe in the ground. You also see a munition (grey) before it’s sprayed green. – yaya on Twitter

I notice the @EliotHiggins has made several references to the green paint on the filler cap suggesting that confirms Syrian culpability. On the contrary….- yaya on Twitter

Here’s another image showing a hell cannon munition with a green gas canister and not yet sprayed grey frame. My guess is the canisters and frame are sprayed with a grey primer before being sprayed green. Maybe the green colour to their “revolution flag”? – yaya on Twitter

The evidence for a north source is not very strong, but the beauty of a bayesian network is that it can balance all the evidence much better than our brains. In this case it found a northern surface to surface projectile to be very likely. – Rootclaim on Twitter

THAT north-probable evidence is not so strong, but the splash pattern and debris spread and other 2 impacts are strong in saying north. – Adam Larson on Twitter

Would you mind uploading on the site an objective description of the two? (e.g. the black stain is 8m to the south, and 4m to the north of the crater). – Rootclaim on Twitter

[Image of the black stain of the crater] – Adam Larson on Twitter

Green line: flat edges, no pressure from impact. Major cracks to N *and* S = sideways/vertical to impact direction. – *Qoppa* on Twitter

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