Democratic Caucus in New Senate Will Have Between 54 and 63 Members

UPDATE: Senator Stevens is going down, meaning the count of Democratic senators is no longer between 53 and 63, but 54 and 63.

The new Senate in the 111th Congress may have a Democratic caucus that can no longer blame anything at all on Republican filibusters. It takes 60 votes to break a filibuster, and the Democrats are very likely to hold between 53 and 61 seats, plus 2 seats belonging to independents who have caucused with the Democrats in the past, for a potential total of 63. Republicans will hold between 37 and 45 seats, and -- because even the smallest states have two U.S. senators each, just like the largest -- Republicans will represent a much smaller percentage of the U.S. population than those numbers suggest.

Andrew First has drawn up a very useful summary of the current makeup of the Senate and the polling in each race: PDF.

Updated report PDF.

If there are changes we will update them:
http://afterdowningstreet.org/2008senate